The best football league in the world starts today and there are lots of posts we have coming up for the league. In today's post, we will be going over the predictions that we have formed using various machine-learning models online such as Opta's Supercomputer and some linear regression models we made on our own using a Premier League data set on Kaggle. Top 4 Champions League Teams:
We referenced Opta's Supercomputer that goes through 10,000 cycles or EPOCHS of data involving goals, xG, shots on target and much more to predict which teams will perform the best. They have predicted Man City to go four times in a row at a 90.18% chance of winning, which is what we agree with as well. They were absolutely dominant last season scoring 94 goals and winning 28 games, the most out of any team. They also won the revered "Treble," becoming the second club in English football to do so Man United's 1998-99 team had won before by winning the Prem, FA Cup, and UCL. It seems certain that they will win again. In the second place, the supercomputer has predicted Arsenal which we would agree with as Arsenal finished comfortably in 2nd last season despite their poor finish and they have secured some great transfers in Kai Havertz from Chelsea for 65 million pounds and Declan Rice for 105 million. However, for 3rd and 4th we disagree with the computer. We believe that Liverpool hasn't made enough changes to their squad from last season to improve substantially so we think that Man United who have signed Mason Mount will edge them out for 3rd place and Liverpool will be the last UCL qualifier at 4th.
Bottom 3 Relegated Teams:
By almost all models and metrics we have consulted, Luton Town has been predicted the highest chance of being relegated. We just feel that they lack the squad quality to play in such a world-class league. Their total squad value sits at around 31 million pounds, which is more than most teams have spent on a single player this season. They could potentially have the worst premier league campaign of all time, breaking Derby County's infamous record. We also think that Sheffield will finish in 19th as their squad quality is not up to the level of the prem and it would be a huge ask for either team to stay up for the next season. For the final relegation spot, we think it will be between Nottingham and Bournemouth. Burnley has what it takes to stay up and they got relegated in 21-22 for the first time in 7 years so they know how to stay up. We think Bournemouth will be the team to be relegated as Nottingham have made some big transfers like signing Elanga and Chris Wood.
Golden Boot: Erling Haaland Erling Haaland will surely win the golden boot. After scoring the most goals of all time in one single Premier League season at 36 last time around, he completely shattered any doubts about him not being able to thrive in a more competitive league. He will score 30+ goals easily we predict.
The Major Surprise: West Ham United
West Ham had a bit of a rough season last year however they made it to Europe the two seasons before and they have signed Harry Maguire which we think will be a huge move for them as their defense will be strong which was a large problem for them last season as they conceded a lot of goals The Huge Upset: Spurs
With the announcement of Harry Kane's transfer to Bayern Munich, Spurs are in deep trouble. The only thing going for them last season was Kane as he scored 30+ goals playing alongside a poor squad who did not help him much. If Son and Maddison can be the new duo of Tottenham, they could perform very well but that seems unlikely given the rest of the team's performance. Overall, a very interesting season is coming up ahead and the chase for Europe will be intense. The dataset we used for some of these predictions can be found here:https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/thamersekhri/premier-league-stats-2022-2023. We can't wait to write more about the upcoming season.
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